社交媒体舆论演化下个体观点交互的可信度研究

Research on the Credibility of Individual Opinion Interaction in the Evolution of Social Media Public Opinion

建立改进的CODA模型来分析研究个体观点可信度及倾向性的形成和变化过程,模拟并揭示群体观点极化的演化条件及演化过程。研究结果显示,高可信度(ρj=0.7-0.9)演化情况下个体最终形成集群,而低可信度(ρj=0.2-0.4)个体观点呈现分散状态。高、低可信度的差值越大,网络观点演化效率越明显;高可信度个体推动了群体极化现象的发生;而当低可信度值低于0.2时,也会出现群体极化现象。进一步探讨了网络群体极化的现实效应,针对高低可信度的演变边界,提出了网络舆论的干预方案,防控网络群体极化的危害。

With an improved CODA model,the paper studied the formation and change process of credibility and tendentiousness of individual opinion, which simulated and explained the forming conditions and process of group opinion polarization. Research results showed that in the high credibility（ ρj= 0. 7- 0. 9） cases, individual eventually evolved to form a cluster; while under low credibility（ ρj= 0. 2- 0. 4） situation, individual＇s opinion was presented in a decentralized state. The greater the difference between high and low credibility, the more conspicuous the conversion efficiency would be. The High credibility individuals promoted an occurrence of a phenomenon of group polarization; meanwhile, the polarization phenomenon also occurred when the low credibility value was less than 0. 2. This study further discussed the network group polarization reality effect, proposed public opinion intervene strategies aimed at high and low credibility evolution boundary, and has a practical significance in prevention and control the group polarization of public opinion.