松嫩高平原土地利用变化分析及趋势模拟——以黑龙江省巴彦县为例

Analysis on Land Use Change and its Trend Simulation in the Songnen High Plain-A Case Study of Bayan County in Heilongjiang Province

以松嫩高平原典型地域黑龙江省巴彦县为研究区,以1991年、2009年和2015年3期土地利用数据为基础,利用GIS空间分析技术,分析其土地利用数量变化及空间转换图谱的阶段性特征,运用景观生态学中"网格采样"方法,改进传统土地利用动态度模型,实现土地利用动态度指数的空间化,并结合地统计学中趋势分析方法,分析土地利用空间动态变化差异及趋势特征;采用CA-Markov模型模拟2025年土地利用空间格局。结果表明:1)1991~2015年24a间土地利用转换多围绕耕地进行,且1991~2009年变化速率及程度强于2009~2015年。1991~2009年研究区南部河流周边地带土地利用转换最为频繁,并以水域和未利用地到耕地的转变最为剧烈,说明垦荒是当地最主要的土地利用干扰方式;2009~2015年土地利用转换发生类型趋于单一化,且变化程度明显趋缓。2)1991~2015年前后两个时段内土地利用动态度差异明显,1991~2009年研究区东北-西南和东南-西北均具有较好的方向拟合趋势,高动态度区多分布于研究区南部的松花江乡、富江乡境内和正东部的黑山镇境内,而低值区多位于北部、西部和东部地区;2009~2015年研究区动态度方向拟合效果较弱,动态度急剧下降,土地利用较为随机。3)2025年模拟结果显示,研究区耕地缓慢减少,其他用地类型面积略微增加,表明随着当地土地资源的开发深入,未来巴彦县土地利用变化将趋于稳定。

The study on the land use characteristics and its spatial distribution was the foundation for the reasonable exploition and utilization of regional land. Taking typical region in Songnen High Plain, Bayan County, Heilongjiang Province as the study area, the traditional land-use dynamic degree model was improved by using ＂grid sampling＂ in landscape ecology and by using trend analysis in statistical method. And spatial-dynamic degree index was realized and was then used to analyze the spatial difference and trend characteristics of land use dynamic change based on three years＇ land use data of 1991, 2009 and 2015. Also, the spatial pattern change of land use in 2025 was simulated and predicted by using the cellular automate-Markov （CA-Markov） model. The results were shown as follows： 1） Land use conversion from 1991 to 2015 occurred mainly around the cultivated land. And the change rate and degree from 1991 to 2009 were greater than that from 2009 to 2015. The change of land use type occurred most frequently in river surroundings located in the south of the study area from 1991 to 2009, but the water area and the unused land were mostly changed into cultivated land, which showed that land reclamation was the main way to the disturbance of land use. However, conversion types of land use was single and slowed down from 2009 to 2015. 2） The dynamic degree of land use was significantly different between before and after the periods of 1991 to 2015. The better fitting trend of land use was in the northeast-southwest and southeast-northwest of the study area from 1991 to 2009. And the most frequent dynamic area of land use change was distributed in Songhua River Township, Fujiang Town located in the south of the study area and Heishan town located in the eastern district. The low dynamic area of land use change was mainly distributed in western, eastern and northern district of the study area. The fitting effect of dynamic degree direction was badly related, and it showed that land use was more randomly from 2009 to 2015. 3） The simulation results in 2025 showed that the area of cultivated land decreased slowly, but that of other types of land use increased slightly. The funding showed that land use change in Bayan County would he stable with the further development of local land resources.