最低工资标准提高对就业正规化的影响

Effect of Minimum Wage Hikes on Formalisation of Employment

虽然最低工资政策的出发点是为了维持正规部门低收入者生活水平,但本文发现其执行效果并不局限于此,而是在一定条件下对中国经济存在"大推进"作用,即有利于更高工资、更高消费和正规化均衡的实现。结果显示:最低工资标准对正规部门就业者工资收入提升弹性大于非正规部门就业者,且从分位数看表现为"U"型,因此,最低工资标准上涨拉大了部门间和部门内就业者工资差距;最低工资标准提高对消费支出刺激作用明显,每10%的增长预计能够带来四省市城镇居民消费支出增加约11.67亿元;随着本地实际最低工资标准的提高,批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业中的正规部门出现扩张,非正规部门出现收缩,而制造业和房地产业则呈现出"逆正规化"趋势。基于"大推进"理论,本文分析认为,在最低工资标准大范围、高频率、大幅度攀升背景下,需求和行业TFP增速是就业正规化出现行业异质性的重要原因。

Although minimum wage as a social security policy is originally designed to maintain living standard of the poor, this paper argues that it helps to realize a better equilibrium featuring high consumption, high wage and formalization as a byproduct. Empirical results suggest that elasticity of the minimum wage to increasing wage income in the formal sector is larger than that in the informal sector, and shows U-curve characteristics. Therefore, the increase of minimum wage standard widens income gap both within and between the two sectors. Each 10% increase in minimum wage will bring 1.16 billion more consumption expenditure per month. With the rapid growth of minimum wage standard, formal sector of wholesale ＆ retail industry and accommodation ＆ catering industry will expand, while informal sector in these industries will shrink. However, manufacturing industry and real estate industry show a different trend of informalization. We believe that total factor productivity in different industries and the change of demand could account for this heterogeneity when facing rapid growth of wage levels.