基于Holling-Ⅱ功能反应函数的谣言传播模型

Rumor Propagation Model with Holling Type-Ⅱ Functional Response

谣言作为一种不良社会现象,不仅不利于社会舆论的健康发展,严重的还将危害社会的稳定与和谐。必要的政府干预和受众的自觉抵抗将有利于遏制不实谣言的扩散。结合Holling-Ⅱ型功能反应函数,构造出一个新的谣言传播模型,用以解释官方应急管理者的及时干预在谣言传播过程中的作用。运用传统的稳定性理论,判断系统的平衡点类型,分析其性态,找出平衡点的稳定条件。通过对不同传播比率和干预系数的调整,发现了谣言大规模扩散和有效应急管理的临界值,相关研究结果将有利于制定合理的谣言控制策略,为政府部门应急管理者的信息发布与辟谣活动提供理论依据与技术支持。

As a negative social phenomenon, rumors are harmful to the healthy development of public opinion, and even jeopardize the social harmony. Therefore, timely government interference and the consciousness of the audience＇s resistance help to curb the spread of rumors. This paper mainly focuses on how the emergency administrators influence the spread of rumors. We construct a new rumor-spreading model combining the predator model with Holling-Ⅱ functional response to explain the role of the official emergency administrators in the process of rumor spreading. We then determine the equilibrium of the system with the traditional theory of stability. Furthermore, we determine the local stability conditions of the system by analyzing their behavior. Through the adjustment of different transmission ratios and coefficients of intervention, we obtain the critical value of rumors＇ mass diffusion and emergency administrators＇ effective interference. All of this helps us make a reasonable rumor control strategy, providing theoretical and technical support for emergency administrators＇ timely interference.