中国与TPP国家农产品产业内贸易走向研究——基于2001-2015年面板数据的预研分析

Research on Agricultural Intra-Industry Trade between China and TPP Member Countries——Based on Panel Data of 2001-2015

基于UN COMTRADE数据库2001-2015年相关内容,分别衡量了中国与TPP国家农产品产业内贸易的现有水平和发展趋势,并利用面板数据模型研究两者的影响因素。结果表明,中国与TPP国家农产品产业内贸易水平较低,贸易增长主要依赖产业间贸易;人均GDP差异、贸易不平衡程度和农产品贸易竞争力与产业内贸易现有水平呈负相关,市场规模差异和贸易开放度与产业内贸易现有水平呈正相关;贸易不平衡程度和农产品贸易竞争力与产业内贸易发展趋势呈负相关,贸易开放度与产业内贸易发展趋势呈正相关。

Based on the data of 2001-2015 from UN COMTRADE database,this paper analysis the level and trend of agricultural intra-industry trade between China and TPP countries,and study the influencing factors of them by using panel data model. The results show that the level of intra-industry trade is low,trade growth mainly depends on inter-industry trade. Per capita GDP difference,trade imbalance and trade competitiveness of agricultural are negatively correlated with the level of intra-industry trade,market size difference and trade openness are positively correlated with the level of intra-industry trade. Trade imbalance and trade competitiveness of agricultural are negatively correlated with the trend of intra-industry trade,trade openness are positively correlated with the trend of intra-industry trade.