基于GM(1,1)模型的哈尔滨房价走势前瞻

Foresight Analysis to Housing Price of Harbin Based on GM(1,1) Model

以哈尔滨市2015年1月-2016年7月的房价月度数据为背景构造了房价波动的GM(1,1)模型,进而对哈尔滨市未来一段时期的房价变化走势进行了短期统计预测。预测结果表明,自2016年8月~2017年7月,哈尔滨房价整体呈微弱走低态势,但总体看价格变化相对稳定。精度检验结果表明,模型预测效果较好,对房价走势的预测有可信性,预测方法有可行性。

On the monthly data of housing price of Harbin city from January 2015 to July 2016,we construct GM（1,1） model of housing price fluctuation for short-term forecasting to the future housing price change in Harbin. Prediction results show that the housing price in Harbin descends weakly on the whole from August 2016 to July 2017,but the housing price changes is relatively stable in general. Accuracy test reveals that the forecasting effect of this model is fine,credible,feasible as well.