流动过程影响婚姻稳定性研究

Marital Stability in the Process of Temporary Migration

文章先从流动人口的流动方式、流动时间和流动空间3个维度来构建流动人口婚姻稳定性的分析框架,再基于全国106个城市157535个流动人口家庭调查数据来检视流动人口离婚风险的影响机理。研究发现:城镇户籍流动人口离婚率高于农村户籍,并随年龄增加和教育程度的提高而升高。此外,同省流入和流出人口在离婚率上非常近似,反映了区域性婚姻文化效应。流动过程中婚姻质量的降低,替代资源可接触性的增多,再婚搜寻成本的降低,都增加了流动人口的离婚风险。回归结果显示:丈夫独自外出务工,流动时间长、距离短,与当地文化差异少,离婚风险高。

In this study, we construct a multidimensional framework for analyzing marital stability among floating population, generate hypotheses, and test them based on a large sample survey of 157535 migrants＇ households in 106 cities in China. The prevalent divorce rates among floating population are of clear patterns by age, education and urban/rural type, with higher rates for older, more ed- ucated and urban-registered residents. By province, the divorce rate of flow-in migrants is similar to that of flow-out migrants, reflecting regionalized cultural effects on marriage. The risk of divorce is en- hanced in the migration process during which the quality of marriage declines, contacts for the substitu- tion increase, and search costs for marriage reduce. Regression results show that the odds of being divorced are greater for solely moved husbands （than wives） and those who migrated for a longer period and over a shorter distance.