贸易投资规则变化与TPP亚太生产网络效应评估——基于中国对美出口的关税机会成本估算

Changes of Trade and Investment Rules and Evaluation of Production Network Effect of TPP in Asia-Pacific Region——Calculation of the Opportunity Cost of Tariff Based on China's Export to the US

以TPP为代表的亚太地区贸易投资规则变化对亚太生产网络产生三大效应,即生产转移效应、网络节点转换效应、服务贸易冲击效应。以中国对美出口为例,计算中国对美出口的关税机会成本,结果表明:TPP货物贸易关税减让对中国对美出口企业造成的关税机会成本约为98.15~113.65亿美元,占中国对美出口总额的比重约为2.47%~2.86%。关税减让冲击整体上并不如预期那样严重,所带来的可能的生产转移效应也将主要集中在劳动密集型部门和行业上,如纺织服装、皮革和家具以及部分机电产品等。

The paper discusses the effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP) Agreement on the production network in Asia-Pacific region, including production shifting effect, node evolution effect, and trade of service effect. Taking China's export to the US as an example, we compute the opportunity cost of tariff for Chinese exporters. The result shows that the opportunity cost of tariff caused by TPP 's tariff reduction is about 9.81-11.37 billion US dollars, accounting for 2.47-2.86% of China's total export to US. The impact of TPP's tariff reduction is not so severe as imagined, and affected sectors mainly include textile and clothes, leather and furniture, some machinery and electronic equipment industries.