低碳背景下基于展开型表述的随机生产模拟

Power System Probabilistic Production Simulation Based on Extensive-form Representation in Low-carbon Context

低碳背景下,清洁能源大规模并网后对系统低碳效益的影响越来越受关注,而常规生产模拟无法精确地对其做出评估。为此,借鉴展开型表述形式提出了一种富于结构性的随机生产模拟。该方法首先以同一时刻风速分布特性作为风电机组输出功率典型场景的选取依据,构造风电展开型表述模型;其次在保留负荷时序性基础上引入机组加载率,结合概率计算全面分析常规机组的启停因素,进而评估清洁能源并网对系统低碳效益的负面影响。同时在算法中,考虑了机组计划停运工况,保证模拟的合理性,并采用均摊舍入法减缓系统状态数的爆炸增长。通过算例分析进一步表明了所提模型和算法的正确性与优越性。

In low-carbon context, the impact of green energy integration on systematic low-carbon benefits is attracting more and more attention. The conventional theoretical methodologies could not evaluate low-carbon benefits precisely. A structural method of probabilistic production simulation is proposed on the lessons of the extensive-form representation. This paper constructs the extensive-form representation of wind farms by selecting the typical scenarios of wind power output based on the same-time characteristic. The unit loading-probability is introduced considering the time-varying characteristics of the load and wind turbines, with the probability calculation, the algorithm can evaluate negative effects on low carbon benefits of the power system including green energy. Meanwhile, the maintenance of generating units is considered to ensure the optimality of the simulation result and by means of the equalization round-off to effectively restrain the explosion of state number. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithms is further verified by cases study.