量化宽松对经济复苏到底楸作用？

How Much Does the Quantitative Easing Affect the Economic Recovery？

2008年金融危机后的全球性量化宽松在历史上尚属首次，对世界各大经济体迅速产牛巨大影响，但量化宽松对经济复苏究竟有多大作用仍存在争议。本文基于量化宽松对全球经济产生影响的典型化事实，提出一种新型影响模式--“脉冲式响应”，运用实体经济虚拟经济相背离的理论分析脉冲式响应的内在作用机理，引入TVP-BVAR模型实证分析美联储量化宽松货币政策对美国及中国经济的作用效果。结果表明，超宽松的货币刺激在短期内对挽救金融危机、缓解经济衰退起到至关重要的作用，但长期看并不能持续拉动实体经济产出和就业的增长，不能持续推进经济复苏。挽救金融危机的政策不是通过量化宽松政策刺激投机性需求，而应该是通过财政转移支付、税收减免、大力扶持消费信用等以增加大众的真实收入刺激真实需求。

The global Quantitative Easing after the 2008 financial crisis was the first time in history economy and it has huge rapidly, but its effect has been all around impact on the world＇s controversial policy This paper is based on the fact that quantitative easing impact on the global economics, and puts forward a new kind of influence model - ＂Pulse Response＂, uses the theory of real economy and virtual economy＇s deviation to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of impulse response, and also introduces TVP-BVAR model to empirically analyze the effects of the fed＇s quantitative easing monetary policy on the United States and China. The results show that the ultra-loose monetary stimulus in the short term has played a crucial role in rescuing the financial crisis, and easing the recession, but in the long term it cannot continue to help the entity of economic output and employment rate, also it cannot promote economic recovery continually The policy on the rescue of the financial crisis should be through fiscal transfer payments tax breaks and strongly support for the consumption credit, in order to increase the public＇s real and to boost the real demand, rather than through the quantitative easing policy to stimulate speculative demand.