福建省县域GDP对房地产投资的依赖度

Dependence of GDP on Real Estate Investment in the Counties of Fujian Province

以GDP对房地产投资的依赖度为测度指标,采用传统统计量方法和探索性空间分析方法相结合,对福建省县域67个单元2004-2014年的GDP对房地产投资的依赖度时空演变进行研究,并截取2004、2009、2014年3个时间断面,运用逐步回归分析对其主要影响因素进行探讨.结果表明:(1)GDP对房地产投资的依赖度绝对差异变大,而相对差异在逐渐缩小;(2)11年间GDP对房地产投资的依赖度中、高类型区有从沿海地区往内陆地区转移的趋势,整体集聚程度先不断加强又有所减弱;局部集聚程度明显加剧,且HH型区域有在内陆地区集聚的趋势,LL型区域有在沿海区域集聚的趋势;(3)多元线性逐步回归分析表明福建省GDP对房地产投资的依赖度主要影响因素在2004年是人口数量和人均社会商品零售总额,2009年主要影响因素是人均公共财政支出,2014年主要影响因素是在岗职工的平均工资.

To rely on real estate investment to measure GDP,the traditional statistic methods and exploratory spatial analysis methods,the combination of county of Fujian province 67 unit of GDP in2004-2014 of real estate are studied,the dependence of time and space evolution and interception of2004,2009,2014,three time section,using stepwise regression analysis to its main influencing factors were discussed.The results showed that（1）GDP dependence of the absolute difference of real estate,and relative differences in narrowing.（2）11years GDP dependence of the real estate investment,high facility had the trend of moving from coastal areas to inland areas,to strengthen the overall cluster and weakened,local concentration was significantly intensified,and HH region had a tendency to inland agglomeration,LL region had a tendency to cluster in the coastal region.（3）Linear stepwise regression analysis showed that the main influence factors on GDP dependence on real estate investment was the population and per capita social total retail sales of goods in 2004,the main influence factor was the public finance expenditure per capita in 2009,the main influence factor was the average wage of workers in 2014.