城镇化率与农机化程度的关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization Rate and Agricultural Mechanization Level

城镇化率与粮食产量同步增长,但看到农业生产劳动力却在减少。为此,假设农业机械替代了农业生产劳动力,确保了粮食产量安全,通过SVAR模型和时变参数模型,以城镇化变动率与农业机械化变动率为研究对象,分长期和短期、静态和动态两组进行分析,结果表明:两者之间在长期内有均衡关系,短期内有偏离修复能力;静态角度上,农业机械化需要很长时间才能完全消化城镇化率变动冲击;动态角度上,从1978年至2014年之间弹性系数基本大于1,富有弹性。因此认为,城镇化吸引了人口,农业机械化代替了劳动力从事生产。

Urbanization rate and grain output synchronous growth, but we see that the labor force in the agricultural pro- duction is reduced. In this paper, it is assumed that the agricultural machinery replaces the agricultural labor force, which ensures the security of grain output. Through the SVAR model and the Time-varying Autoregressive Model, the change rate of urbanization and the change rate of agricultural mechanization were studied, from two groups of long- term＆ short-term and static＆dynamic analysis. That between them in the long term there is a equilibrium relationship, in the short term there is deviation from the repair capacity ; static angle of agricultural mechanization need a long time to fully digest urbanization rate changes impact, dynamic angle from 1978 to 2014 between coefficient of elasticity is sub- stantially greater than 1 and elastic. Therefore, we believe that the urbanization has attracted the population, agricultural mechanization in place of the labor force engaged in production.