干旱地区经济社会生态复合系统协调发展研究

Coordinated Development of Economic Social Ecological Complex System in Arid Area

以和田地区为研究区,根据DPSIR模型构建了经济社会生态复合系统协调发展指标体系,并利用协调发展模型综合评价了2000—2012年的协调发展度。研究结果表明:2000—2005年,经济综合评价指数明显低于社会和生态综合评价指数,社会和生态趋于平衡,协调发展度处于失调衰退类;2006年生态综合评价指数急剧下降,社会综合评价指数高于生态和经济综合评价指数,开始由失调衰退类向亚协调发展类转变;2007—2012年,经济和生态综合评价指数均高于社会综合评价指数,由亚协调发展类转为协调发展类。根据协调发展趋势、当地的自然和社会环境,提出了和田地区发展的对策和建议。

Taking Hotan area as a research object,this paper had established a coordination development evaluate index system which was an economic,social and ecological composite system on the basis of the driving force,pressure,state,impact and response( DP SIR) conceptual framework,then assessed the degree of coordination development from 2000 to 2012 by using coordinated development degree model. The results show that from 2000 to 2005,the economic comprehensive index is significantly lower than the social index and ecological index,social index and ecological index tends to equilibrium and coordinated development degree is close to maladjustment; the ecological comprehensive index in 2006 shows a steep drop,social comprehensive index is much higher than the economic index and ecological index,and the transformation of social index is from maladjustment to sub-coordinated development; from 2007 to 2012,the economic index and ecological index are all higher than the social index and they have been changed from sub-coordinated development to coordinated development. In the end,in the light of coordinated development trend and the local natural and social environment,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of Hotan area.