中国—东盟国家对外开放对金融发展的影响研究

The Effects of Openness on Financial Development in Theory and Empiricism:Evidence from China-ASEAN Data

由于国家(区域)间经济金融发展水平的差异,对外开放对金融发展的影响具有不确定性。利用1995—2013年中国—东盟10个样本国的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:贸易开放总体上有助于金融发展;金融开放会促进金融机构发展,但对股票市场发展、债券市场发展的影响不确定;银行集中度的下降能促进金融发展,经济增长显著促进金融发展,而制度质量对金融发展的影响存在不确定性。出现不确定性的原因不仅在于各国经济、金融发展水平差异较大,更在于其贸易开放与金融开放之间的不协调(结构不匹配)。因此,中国—东盟各国应积极推动贸易开放,适度金融开放并逐渐消减利益集团的阻挠,提高金融开放与贸易开放的协调性,并加强金融合作,以促进各国金融发展及区域金融协调发展。

Because of the difference in economic and financial development between countries or regions , theinfluence of the openness on financial development has uncertainty. This paper makes empirical analysis of paneldata of ten countries of China-ASEAN during 1995-2013 , and the results show that the whole conducive to financial development , that financial openness can boost the development of financial agenciesbut the impact of stock market development and bonds market development is uncertain , that the decrease of bankcentralization degree can promote financial development , that economic growth can significantly propel financialdevelopment , and however , the effect of institutional quality on financial development has uncertainty. The reasonfor uncertainty emergence results not only from big difference in economic and financiaeach country but also from un-compatibility （ un-compatible struc tu re） between trade development and financialopenness. As a result , each country of China-ASEAN should actively promote trade openness , suitably openfinance , gradually decrease the blockade of vested interests , boost the compatibility between financial openness and trade openness , and strengthen financial cooperation so as to improve financial development between each country and regional financial coordinated development.