互联网的发展、货币电子化对货币指标影响的实证分析——中国与美国的广义脉冲对比

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Development of Electronic Currency and Internet to Monetary Index:The Generalized Pulse Contrast of China and the United States

通过构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,并画出广义脉冲响应分析图,对比了中、美两国的互联网普及度和电子货币的发展对货币流通速度、实际利率、广义货币供给等货币指标的影响。发现中国和美国的电子货币活跃度的提升和互联网的普及倾向于给货币流通速度负向的影响,即加快了货币流通速度的下降。广义货币供给所受的影响中国要比美国的大,长期来看影响是负向的。对中国的实际利率影响短期内是负向的,对美国的实际利率的影响短期为正向的。

By constructing a vector autoregressive （VAR） model, and draw the generalized impulse response analysis to contrast the impact of Internet popularity and electronic currency on the money velocity, real interest rates, and the broad money supply of China and the United States. The result find that the active promotion of electronic currency of and the popularization of the Internet tend to give money velocity negative effects, namely, to speed up the currency＇s decline. Broad money supply by the influence of China bigger than the United States, in the long term effect is negative. Impact on China＇s real interest rates in the short term is negative, the impact on the real interest rates in the United States in the short term is positive.