基于理性预期对我国货币政策中性问题的检验

The Test about Neutrality of Monetary Policy in China Based on Rational Expectation

在宏观经济运行过程中,货币政策是一国宏观经济政策的重心。国际上对货币政策的中性问题一直有着争论。本文首先对理性预期理论假说和货币中性问题进行回顾,通过使用单位根等计量方法较为系统地分析了中国在1990-2013年间货币供给量、实际产出和物价水平这三个因素之间的相互关系,得到了在中国货币存在着中、短期非中性,长期中性的结论。因此长期来看我国货币政策的主要作用方向应该是注重货币政策的宏观调节方面而并不是仅仅通过货币供应量的变动来调节宏观经济。在基于理性预期假说的前提下,货币政策的目标首先应该是稳定物价,避免通胀,为宏观经济增长提供稳定的货币市场大环境。

In the operation of macroeconomy, monetary policy is the core of macroeconomic policy in a country. There are always debates about neutrality of monetary policy in international academia. This paper firstly reviews hypothesis in theory of rational expectation. Then it uses metering methods such as square root and so on to analyze interrelations between money supply, actual output and price level during 1990-2013 in China. The result shows Chinese money is non-neutral in a short and medium term and neutral in a long term. Therefore, the long-term direction of Chinese monetary policy should lay stress on macroeconomic adjustment of monetary policy, rather than adjusting macroeconomy only through changing money supply. In the premise of rational expectation, the first target of monetary policy should be price stability, inflation aversion and a stable circumstance of money market for macroeconomic growth.