夜间灯光数据下河北省能源消费量的空间模拟

Spatial Simulation of Energy Consumption in Hebei Province Based on Nighttime Light Data

以NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光为数据源,对河北省各地级市能源消费数据与夜间灯光数据进行相关性分析,确定相关系数最高的二次多项式模型作为能源消费的回归模型,根据夜间灯光数据计算并修正各地级市内能源消费值,生成1km格网的河北省能源消费分布图.精度检验结果表明,能源消费的总体相对误差接近0,说明模型的模拟精度较高.全局空间自相关分析结果显示,2013年河北省能源消费具备显著的空间集聚性;局部空间自相关分析结果表明高能源消费区集中于各地城区和工业区,低能源消费区集中于以林地和耕地为主的北部和西部山区中,结果符合河北省能源消费的现状.

Using NPP-VIIRS nighttime light as data source,energy consumption data of eleven prefecturelevel cities and nighttime light data in Hebei province were made to conduct correlation analysis.A quadratic polynomial model with highest correlation coefficient was determined and made as regression model of energy consumption.Then this model was applied to calculate and correct amount of energy consumption within each grid inside each prefecture-level city based on nighttime light data.The result of accuracy test showed that this model of which the total relative error approached to zero was high of precision.Moreover,the global spatial autocorrelation analysis results showed that the energy consumption of Hebei province in 2013 had significant spatial aggregation.Another local spatial autocorrelation analysis results demonstrated high energy consumption region focused on urban areas and industrial estate,and low energy consumption region concentrated on northern and western mountain areas which were provided with abundant woodlands and farmlands.These results fitted the situation of energy consumption in Hebei province.