中国地区产业结构形态变迁态势及其内生动因

Dynamic Change of Regional Industrial Structural Form and Its Endogenous Driving Forces in China

对产业集群演变与成因的深入分析需进一步引入地区产业结构变迁理论,融合新结构经济学中地区比较优势产业演进与新经济地理学中有关理论,构建产业结构形态变迁与内生动力驱动关系的理论框架。采用2005-2014年中国279个地级市数据,从消费结构、要素禀赋、对外贸易与技术进步四个方面实证分析我国产业结构形态变迁与内生动力的关系。研究显示:内生动力驱动现阶段我国各地区产业结构形态整体上呈集聚态势;门槛效应检验表明不同阈值区间的内生动力对产业结构形态变迁的作用存在差异;低水平区间内的技术进步促进地区产业多样性,高水平区间内则转变为促进集聚态势;对外贸易改善对集聚态势有持续性的促进作用;劳动力质量提升、资本深化驱动产业结构形态趋于多样性态势。资本深化与消费结构水平较低是制约我国现阶段地区产业结构形态高级化的"短板"。

Change of regional industrial structural form depends on the endogenous dynamics of industrial structure upgrading. Using a data set from 279 cities in China between 2005 and 2014, this paper demonstrat that endogenous dynamics, including consumption structural upgrading, foreign trade improvement and tech-nology advances, promote regional industrial structural form to be agglomeration. The threshold effect test indi-cates that there is a threshold effect of endogenous dynamics on regional structural form ： at low level, endoge-nous power from human capital accumulation and technological progress tend to promote regional industrial di-versity, but the effect of these dynamics translates to promote agglomeration of advantageous industries at a higher level. Consumption structural upgrading tend to promote regional industrial structure to be agglomera-tion ;factor endowment improvement has a persistent positive effect on industrial diversity. The restricts of the dynamic evolution of industrial structure are the low level of capital deepening and consumption structure.