汇率变动对中国旅游出口收入影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Tourism Export Income

中国有着极其丰富的旅游资源,外国游客来华旅游的人数近几年在不断地增长,旅游服务贸易也是今后我国发展的重要项目之一。以1999—2012年间的数据为基础,采用面板数据模型研究汇率对中国旅游出口收入的影响,所取自变量为我国旅游人数较多的6个国家的人均GDP、对应货币对人民币的汇率和该6国首都距离北京的直线距离。建立了两个模型,第一个模型只以汇率为自变量,第二个模型的自变量除了汇率外还增加了上面所提到的另外两个变量,根据两个模型最终结果的对比,人民币的升值会使得外国来华旅游人数的减少,根据结果给出了建议。

China has rich tourism resources, the number of foreign, tourists to China continues to grow in. recent years, tourism services trade is al-so one of the important development projects in. China in. the future. This paper is based on. the date of the year from 1999 to 2012, using panel date model to analyze the influence of the exchange rate of RMB on. China,s tourism export income. The three independent variables are the per capita GDP from the countries of origin, the corresponding currencies against the RMB and the straight-line distance between, the capital of the corre-sponding countries and Beijing. This paper establishes two models, the first one uses the exchange rate as the only independent variable, the sec-ond model adds the other two independent variables above mentioned, according to the comparison, of the two models, the appreciation, of RMB will reduce the foreign, tourists. I also put forward some suggestions finally.