基于层次分析法的变电站工程造价关键指标分析

Critical Factors for Cost Management of Power Grid Projects Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

变电站工程造价影响因素众多,造价管控的难度较大,出现了变电站工程概算结余过多的现象,占用了过多的资金,造成了资金的浪费。为了有效地控制变电站工程概算,有必要研究影响工程概算的关键指标。基于安徽电网变电站工程2010~2015年的历史造价数据,用于主成分分析对指标属性进行优化精简,应用相关分析确定了指标属性与变电站工程概算的相互关系,从而构建了变电站工程的关键指标体系。同时,在56位专家问卷调查的基础上,应用层次分析法对变电站工程关键指标的重要性权重进行技术分析,为下一步构建变电站工程投资预测模型奠定了基础,有效地控制变电站工程概算。

Many factors influence the costs of power grid projects,resulting in difficulty for cost estimation and management. The budgetary estimates of power grid projects often exceed actual costs,causing the waste of abundant money. In order to effectively control cost estimation of power grid projects,it is necessary to investigate the critical factors of power grid projects. Therefore,this paper applied principal component analysis on the historical data of Anhui Electric Power Company from 2010 to 2015 to identify critical factors of power grid projects. Pearson correlation analysis was also adopted to investigate linear relationships between critical factors of power grid projects and their budgetary estimates. It also used analytic hierarchy process to calculate the importance weights of critical factors. The practical suggestions were also proposed based on current results to control cost estimation of power grid projects in future.