我国省际人均财政支出规模增长趋同性研究

Research on the Convergence of the Scale of China's Inter-provincial Fiscal Expenditure

本文采用β趋同检验和加权变异系数法,以我国31个省(市、自治区)2000-2014年人均财政支出为研究对象,对我国省际人均财政支出规模的趋同性进行了检验,并对近15年来趋同的阶段性变化规律进行了详细分析。在此基础上运用聚类分析法对各省(市、自治区)按人均财政支出规模进行了分类。结果表明:我国省际人均财政支出符合绝对β趋同,趋同速度与转移支付规模、结构存在较大的关联性;省际人均GDP的趋同性、转移支付制度安排和财政支出结构是人均财政支出趋同的重要因素。对此,本文提出了有助于我国省际人均财政支出趋同的相关政策建议。

This paper has testified China＇s inter-provincial convergence of per capita expenditure from 2000 to 2014 by β convergence test and the weighted coefficient of variation method in 31 provinces, and analyzed the convergence of phase change law in detail in 15 years. On the basis of this, the cluster analysis is used to clas- sify the provinces according to the per capita fiscal expenditure scale. The results show that the per capita fiscal expenditure of our provinces is of absolute convergence; there is relevance between convergence speed and transfer payment scale and structure; provincial per capita GDP convergence, fiscal expenditure structure and the transfer payment system are important factors for the convergence of per capita expenditure. At last, this pa- per puts forward some related policy suggestions which are helpful to the convergence of the per capita fiscal expenditure in China.