1971—2014年广西桂平市地面气候要素变化特征分析

Analysis of Variations of Climatic Elements in Surface Ground in Guiping City,Guangxi Province during 1971-2014

根据桂平市地面气象站1971—2014年气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测、Morle小波分析等方法分析了近45年来桂平市气候要素变化特征。结果表明:(1)年极端最高气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温均呈显著的上升趋势,年平均相对湿度呈显著的减少趋势,年降水量、年平均风速呈不显著增大趋势,年日照时数呈不显著的减少趋势;(2)年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年降水量、年相对湿度、年日照时数和年平均风速分别存在19年、22年、20年、4年、10年、16年、19年、17年、32年的主周期变化;(3)年极端最高气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年平均相对湿度均通过0.05的显著性水平检验,显著突变点分别为1995年、1998年、1997年、1993年、1992年,其余要素突变特征不显著;(4)R/S分析表明未来各气候要素将与过去变化趋势保持一致,呈持续性变化。

Based on the data of the temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration etc from the ground meteorological stations from 1971 to 2014 Guiping city,we used the linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis to analyze characteristics of climate variation in Guiping in the recent 45 years. The results showed that：（ 1） Annual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature,annual average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature,annual average temperature showed an extremely significant upward trend. annual relative humidity and sunshine duration tended to decrease,annual average wind speed showed a trend of increase;（ 2） annual extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature,annual mean maximum temperature and average minimum temperature,annual average temperature and precipitation,annual relative humidity and sunshine duration,annual average wind speed had 19 a,22a,20 a,4a,10 a,16a,19 a,17a,32 a changes main cycle respectively;（ 3） annual extreme maximum temperature and mean maximum temperature,annual mean minimum temperature and average temperature,annual relative humidity by α = 0. 05 significance level test and mutations in 1995a1998 a,1997a,1993 a,1992a respectively,and the rest of the elements is not significant mutations;（ 4） R/S analysis indicates that the future climate elements would be in consistent change with the past 44 years.