基于读者人群变化的图书借阅动力学模型研究

Research on the Dynamic Model for Book Borrowing Based on the Change of Reader Groups

为了从图书老化数据中得到图书老化和读者有关的因素,参考传染病的动力学模型,通过对读者人群分类,建立各个读者人群之间的数量变化动力学模型,对吉林大学农学图书馆2012年—2013年的共时借阅数据进行了拟合,给出了借阅人群的传播系数和衰减系数。这些参数反应了共时文献老化的机制,该方法还可以得到当前读者人群的借阅习惯,对分析图书馆的图书老化情况进而指导采购和剔旧有很大帮助,同时这些参数对有针对性的数据挖掘有一定的指导作用。

In order to get the relevant factors of readers from the borrowing data of aging books, referring to the dynamic model for infectious disease, this paper established a dynamic model based on the different kinds of crowds and their quantity change, and applied this model to fit the same-time observation borrowing data in Agricultural Library of Jilin University during 2012-2013, and obtained the diffusion coefficient and decay coefficient which reflected the aging mechanism of same-time observation and the reading habits of current readers, which could help analyze the status of book aging and guide the book acquisition and aging books weeding, as well as provide guidance for the pointed data mining.