环境规制与产业结构升级——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析

Environmental Regulation and Industrial Structure Upgrading——Based on Dynamic Spatial Econometric Analysis of Chinese Cities' Data

本文构建了环境规制促进产业结构升级的理论框架,并采用2003—2014年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,以地理距离作为空间权重矩阵,运用动态空间面板模型实证检验了环境规制对产业结构升级的影响效应。结论表明,城市产业结构升级之间存在显著的全局空间正相关性和局部空间集聚效应。环境规制显著促进了城市产业结构升级,但这种促进效应受城市经济发展阶段的限制。环境规制对工业化中期和后期阶段城市的产业结构升级具有显著的促进效应,且对中期阶段城市的促进作用更强,但对工业化初期阶段城市的促进效应没有通过显著性检验。

The paper constructs a theoretical framework of environmental regulation on promoting industrial structure upgrading. It uses statistical data of 285 Chinese cities in 2003-2014, and makes geographic distance as a spatial weight matrix. The paper empirically tests the effect of enviromnental regulation on industrial structure upgrading using dynamic spatial panel models. The results show that there is significant positive global spatial autocorrelatiou and local spatial agglomeration effect between urban industrial structure upgrading. Environmental regulation significantly promotes industrial structure upgrading, but the promoting effect is restricted by urban economic development stage. The effects of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading are significant on the middle stage and the later stage of industrialization, and the promoting role on the middle stage of industrialization is bigger than that on the later stage. But the effect of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading is not significant on the initial stage of industrialization.