气候变暖背景下京津冀地区冬小麦种植北界变化

The Northern Boundary Variation of Winter Wheat in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under Climate Warming

气候变暖使冬小麦种植区域发生北扩现象。为研究近几十年来京津冀冬小麦可种植北界变化以及气温变化对该地区实际冬小麦种植北界的影响,采用指标计算法对热量资源条件下的冬小麦可种植北界进行了模拟与分析,同时结合遥感数据和决策树模型提取了该区域冬小麦的实际种植北界,比较了两者间的差异。结果表明,热量资源条件下,京津冀地区冬小麦可种植北界纬度以每10年0.0427°的速率向北移动;温度是冬小麦实际种植北界北移的基础且与其呈正相关。

Winter wheat planting area moves northward due to climate warming. To investigate winter wheat northern boundary variation and the impact of temperature variation on actual winter wheat northern boundary variation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, index calculation method was used to simulate northern boundary under heat resource circumstance, and remote sensing decision tree model to extract actual northern boundary. Results showed that northern boundary under the heat resource circumstance was moving northward 0.0427° every decade. Temperature had positive correlation with the northern boundary moving therefor was the basic reason for the moving.