基于多元线性回归模型的农村劳动力转移研究

Study on Rural Labor Transfer Based on Multiple Linear Regression Model

农村剩余劳动力的转移是地区城市化和工业化的基础。以农村转移劳动力数量占农村人口的比重为被解释变量,以人口性别比例等因素作为解释变量,基于全国1985—2014年统计数据,运用Eviews统计分析软件进行处理,通过构造多元线性回归模型进行数据分析。研究认为,选取的影响因素中男女性别比例与转移劳动力数量比重呈负相关,城乡二元结构系数、农村居民人均纯收入与转移劳动力数量呈正比,城镇失业率与转移劳动力数量无明显关系。

The transfer of rural surplus labor is the basis of regional urbanization and industrialization. In this paper,we make rural population proportion of rural migrant labor as explanatory variable,based on the statistical date ranging from 1985 to 2011,using Eviews statistical analysis software to analysis the data,building the multiple linear regression model and process the data by unit root test and cointegration test. The empirical results show that,in all of influencing factors,there is a negative correlation between sex radio and rural population proportion of rural migrant labor. As for urban and rural dual structure coefficient and average income of rural population,they all have positive correlations with rural population of rural migrant labor. And there is no obvious correlations between urban unemployment rate and rural migrant labor.