航空器飞行事故的“情景-任务-绩效”应急模型及案例研究

“Scenario-Mission-Performance” Emergency Model and Case Study of Aircraft Flight Accidents

为提升民航业应对重大突发事件的效能,以航空器飞行事故为研究对象,采用情景构建理论与方法,研究了情景要素、应急任务内容以及绩效评估策略。通过收集整理国内外重大飞行事故调查报告、数据和资料,运用案例研究、分类、统计、筛选等方法,确定情景中包括的要素和事件链;分析我国民航业在应急管理体系中存在的问题,并基于"情景-应对"方法,构建了面向航空器飞行事故的"情景-任务-绩效"应急模型;随后通过案例对模型的应用进行了示范验证,结果表明各单位共享"情景"使得应急行动更加协调,"任务"覆盖应急处置能力的关键点,"绩效"评估反映应急的成本和效益状况。该模型具有实际应用价值,可为民航应急工作提供技术参考。

In order to improve the performance of emergency response in the civil aviation industry,by tak- ing flight accidents as the research object and using the theory of constructing scenarios,this paper studies the elements of scenarios, the content of the emergency task and the strategy of performance evaluation. Through collecting the investigation reports, data and information of global flight accidents, the paper utili- zes case studies, classification, statistics, screening and other methods to identify the elements and the event chain of the scenario. Then the paper analyzes the problems of the emergency management system of civil aviation in China, and establishes an emergency model of ＂scenario-mission-performance＂ for aircraft flight accidents based on the method of ＂scenario-response＂. Next the paper conducts the demonstration for the application of the model by a case study. The results show that sharing of the ＂scenario＂ makes the emergency response more coordinated ; ＂mission＂ covers the key points of emergency handling ability;＂performance＂ evaluation reflects the cost and benefit of the emergency. The model has practical value of providing technical reference for emergency response in the civil aviation industry.