城镇化背景下省域环境压力与环境响应关系研究——以浙江为例

A Study on Provincial Environmental Pressure and Environmental Response in the Context of Urbanization——Evidence from Zhejiang Province

随着浙江城镇化水平的不断提高,环境压力逐渐增大,环境响应对于纾缓环境压力有重要作用。文章构建了环境压力指数和环境响应指数,进行了ADF单位根检验和协整检验,结果显示两者存在长期均衡关系,建立了向量误差修正(VEC)模型;估计了VAR模型并对其进行诊断和预测,分析了脉冲响应函数并进行方差分解。提出了浙江省应大力贯彻和实施绿色发展理念、降低工业"三废"排放、增强环境响应的建议。

With the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization in Zhejiang province, environmental pressure gradually increases and environmental response plays an important role to ease the pressure on the environment. The paper constructs environmental pressure index and environmental response index and carries out the ADF unit root test and cointegration test. The result shows that there is a longrun equilibrium relationship between environmental presswre and environmental response. The paper establishes a vector error correction （VEC） model, estimates the VAR model, makes the diagnosis and prediction, and analyzes the pulse impulse response function and variance decomposition, Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions that Zhejiang province should vigorously carry out and implement green development concept, reduce the discharge of industrial ＂waste water, waste gas, solid waste＂ and enhance environmental response.