劳动力“极化”的经济效应分析——基于经济增长和收入不平等的双重视角

An Analysis on Economic Effects of Labor Force “Polarization”——Based on Two Perspectives of Economic Growth and Income Inequality

文章在国外劳动力极化的发展背景下,对我国改革开放以来劳动力就业极化和工资极化的发展趋势进行梳理,并探讨了劳动力极化对经济增长和收入不平等的影响方向和路径。研究结果表明:21世纪以来我国就业结构呈现出"N"型"极化升级"趋势,工资结构呈现出两端上升、中间塌陷的"U"型极化特点。从劳动力极化对经济增长的影响效应来看,高技能劳动力就业比重增加、技能偏向性技术进步与技能互补推动经济持续增长;以农民工为主要代表的低技能劳动力支撑了我国低成本工业化和城镇化的快速发展,但其难以给经济增长带来持久动力,最终产生阻碍作用。从劳动力极化对收入不平等的影响效应来看,高技能劳动力相对工资上涨导致收入差距扩大,但内生的技能供给增加会反向抑制收入差距扩大;低技能劳动力相对工资上升会缩小收入差距,但由于缺乏持续的工资上升动力,收入差距将又呈现扩大趋势。

In the context of foreign labor force polarization, the paper describes the development trend of labor force employment polarization and wage polarization since the reform and opening up in China, discusses the direction and path of polarization＇ s effects on economic growth and income inequality. The results show that employment structure presents the trend of ＂N＂ type ＂polarized upgrading＂ and wage structure presents ＂U＂ type since the 21st century. From the aspect of polarization＇ s effect on economic growth, the increases of high skill labor＇s employment proportion, the complementation of skill-biased technological progress and skill labor promote economic growth. Low skill labor including massive migrant workers supports the rapid development of low-cost industrialization and urbanization which ultimately has a hindering effect on economic growth because of lacking lasting power. From the aspect of polarization＇s effect on income inequality, the increase of high skill labor＇ relative wage leads to the expansion of income gap, however the increase in endogenous skill supply will inhibit the expansion. The increase of low skill labor＇ relative wage will narrow income gap, but income gap will show a trend of expansion due to lack of sustained wage increase.