2014年以来我国热钱流出规模的估算——基于对残差法的修正

An Estimation on the Scale of Hot Money Outflow in China since 2014——Based on the Correction of Residual Method

为了探究我国近两年热钱流出的真实规模,文章对综合法进行完善:一是综合考虑藏汇于民、对外投资、偿还外债、汇率变动影响,以及基于债权、股权、利息的投资收益等因素对外汇储备规模进行全面的调整;二是通过选取与贸易额相配比的指标即M值法(Matching Method)对合理贸易顺差进行估算,进而还原贸易项下流出的热钱;三是通过社会固定资产投资中的FDI占实际利用外资的比重来测算出隐藏在FDI中的热钱。经过上述调整,文章估算出2014-2016年第一季度,我国热钱共流出14 602.74亿美元,调整后的数据与经济形势和资本市场变化相符程度更高,更贴近热钱真实值。热钱的大量流出给我国资本市场带来压力,增加宏观调控的难度。

In order to explore the true outflow scale of hot money in two recent years in China, this paper perfects the comprehensive method. Firstly, the paper adjusts the scale of foreign exchange reserves, considering reserves held by the people, foreign investment, foreign debt repayment, the exchange rate movements impact, and investment income based on the obligatory right, equity right and interest. Secondly, the paper estimates the reasonable trade surplus using M-value method （Matching Method） by selecting the index which matches to volume of trade, and then restores the outflow of hot money through the trade. Thirdly, the paper estimates the hot money hidden in FDI using FDI in social fixed assets investment accounts for the proportion of the actual Use of foreign capital. After these adjustments, it is estimated that there has been about 1460.274 billion dollars in outflow of hot money from China from 2014 to the first quarter of 2016. The adjusted data is more consistent with economic situation and capital market changes, and is more close to real scale of hot money. A large number of hot money outflow will undoubtedly bring pressure on China＇ s capital market, and increase the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control.