辽阳地区汛期降水特征分析及预测

Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Precipitation of Flood Season in Liaoyang

近年辽阳旱涝频发,降水特征研究对于防汛、减灾、水资源保护等具有指导意义。采用统计学方法、倾向估计、滑动平均、模比系数差积、Kendall方法,对辽阳地区近60年的汛期降水空间分布差异、趋势演变进行分析,得出汛期降水受地形影响呈东多西少分布;年际变化呈"多-少-多-少"的分布,近60年降水呈减少趋势,波动式减少,且山丘区汤河减少具有显著性,并以此为基础建立SARIMA、马尔科夫模型用于辽阳地区汛期降水量的预测,未来两年降水处于平水年份。

In recent years,drought and flood disasters frequently occurred.Therefore,research on characteristics of precipitation had directive significance.Spatial Differentiation and trend variability were analyzed based on precipitation data of recent 63 years in Liaoyang,using statistics,tendency estimation,moving average,difference product of module ratio,Kendall methods.The results showed precipitation more in east than that of west affected by the landform,precipitation distribution ＂more-less-more-less＂ in interannual variability,precipitation exhibited a fluctuating downward trend in recent 60 years,then Tanghe reservoir station approved by significant testing.SARIMA and Markov models were adopted to predict precipitation of flood Season in Liaoyang,precipitation in future two years was median.