矿井瓦斯涌出量的GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型预测

Prediction of GM(1,1) Metabolic Model of Mine Gas Emission

运用灰色系统理论,根据矿井相对瓦斯涌出量的历史统计数据建立GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型,使用残差进行精度检验。对比表明,新陈代谢模型精度高于常规的GM(1,1)模型,应用GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型对矿井未来3 a的瓦斯涌出量进行了预测,为矿山可持续发展提供参考。

Based on the grey system theory, the GM （1,1） model and the GM （1,1） metabolic model were established according to the historical statistical data of the relative gas emission. The comparison shows that the metabolic model is more accurate than the conventional GM （1,1） model, and the GM （1,1） metabolism model is used to predict the gas emission in the next three years, which provides a reference for the sustainable development of the mine