基于半马尔可夫的滚筒采煤机可靠性建模及分析

Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Drum Shearer Based on Semi Markov Model

考虑维修作用对采煤机可靠性的影响,结合从国内某大型煤矿收集的多台进口采煤机数年的故障数据,采用半马尔可夫模型对采煤机运行过程建模。依据故障发生的频次和造成的后果划分采煤机运行过程可靠性状态。统计1个大修周期内各型采煤机可靠性状态转移,计算各型采煤机不同状态下的过煤量,研究不同可靠性状态之间的转移概率,推断同一可靠性状态下过煤量分布函数。在得到采煤机所有可靠性状态间转移的分布函数类型基础上,为采煤机制定合理的项修和大修提供依据。

The influence of maintenance on the reliability of drum shearer is considered. Combined with a large number of imported drum shearer＇s fault data collected from a large coal mine. Modeling the drum shearer＇s running processes by using semi Markov model. According to the frequency of fault occurrence and the severity of consequences of fault, the drum shearer＇s reliability condition of running processes is divided. To gather the statistics of each type drum shearer＇s transfer of reliability states in a major overhaul period. Calculating the coal quantity in different conditions, studying the transition probability between different reliability states, deducing distribution function of coal quantity in the same reliability state. Based on the distribution function of the drum shearer＇s all reliability states transition,providing the basis for the drum shearer to make a reasonable project maintenance and overhaul.