中日关系的“进”与“退”——基于“区分开来”原则预测的可能前景

The “Advance” and “Retreat” of Sino-Japanese Relations:The Prospect of Prediction Based on the Principle of “Dichotomy”

中国对日方针的重要思想是要一分为二看日本。1972年中日邦交正常化是中国坚持"区分开来"原则的重大外交成果。20世纪70年代末以来中日友好关系取得了长足进展,2012年9月日本政府"购岛"导致两国围绕钓鱼岛主权的争端迅速升温,2014年11月习近平主席与安倍晋三首相会晤开启了中日关系走向缓和的进程。当前中日关系仍面临困难,如逆水行舟,不进则退。今后中日关系发展可能出现两种前景:一是中日关系"退大于进",两国关系持续紧张;二是中日关系"进大于退",中日关系保持缓和趋势。从中长期看,在习近平主席提出的"打造人类命运共同体"为核心的外交战略思想的指引下,中日关系"进大于退"的可能性将与日俱增。

The principle of ＂ dichotomy＂ is an important thought of China＇ s policy toward Japan. The normalization of Sino - Japanese relations in 1972 is regarded as a major diplomatic achievement on the basis of the ＂dichotomy＂ principle. Since the end of 1970s, Sino -Japanese friendly relations have made considerable progress. In September 2012, the ＂nationalization＂ of the Diaoyu Islands by Japanese government led to growing disputes between China and Japan. In November 2014, President Xi Jinping met with prime minister Abe at APEC summit meeting, marking the relaxation of the Sino- Japanese relations. At present, the Sino -Japanese relations are still faced with difficulties like a boat rowing upstream, with two scenarios in the future. On one hand, the Sino - Japanese relations may remain in tension featuring ＂greater backward than progress＂ ; on the other hand, the bilateral relations may also continue to relax featuring ＂ greater progress than backward＂. In the long term, under the guidance of the diplomatic thought of ＂the human community of common destiny＂ by President Xi, there may be a growing trend of ＂greater progress than backward＂, meaning further improvement of the Sino - Japanese relations.