TPP的政治学:美日协作的动因与困境

The Politics of TPP:The Motivation and Predicament of U.S.-Japan Cooperation

TPP的兴起,源于美日两国贸易政策的合流。美日对TPP的解读,强调了其制衡中国的战略价值和适应供应链贸易、推动增长的经济价值。这样的论点有助于在政治精英中形成共识,却难以说服普通民众,导致TPP在首相官邸主导的日本政治中获胜,却在地方政治主导的美国总统选举中受挫。TPP没能弥合全球化在国际和国内层面造成的裂痕,反而增加了全球治理和国内治理碎片化的风险,这是美日贸易政策陷入困境的根本原因。特朗普的当选不仅使TPP前途黯淡,还可能引发美国与其他国家之间的贸易摩擦,而日本的贸易政策是否会继续以美国为中心展开也存在诸多变数。

The Trans -Pacific Partnership （TPP） has emerged as a result of the convergence of U. S. and Japan＇s trade policies. The United States and Japan have emphasized TPP＇ s strategic value of balancing China as well as its economic value of adapting world trade governance to the reality of supply chain trade and boosting growth. Such arguments may help to build consensus among political elites, but are not persuasive to average people, which explains its ratification in the Japanese politics dominated by the prime minister and his cabinet, and its setback in the American presidential election determined by local politics. Instead of filling in the fractures within and among nations that are caused by globalization, the TPP has raised the risk of fragmentation in both domestic and global governance, which is the main cause of the confusion in U. S. and Japan＇ s trade policies.