山东半岛蓝色经济区经济—环境复合系统仿真与发展对策研究

Study on Simulation and Development Countermeasures of Economy-environment Composite System in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone

构建了以山东半岛蓝色经济区为例的经济—环境复合系统发展系统动力学模型,运用VENSIM软件对区域未来发展情景进行定量化动态研究与模拟。通过调节复合系统的决策变量,设定了4种不同的发展情景方案,预测在不同情景方案下山东半岛蓝色经济区的发展状况,得出山东半岛蓝色经济区经济—环境复合系统协调发展的最优方案,为山东半岛蓝色经济区的规划、治理和发展提供决策支持。

This paper constructed a system dynamics model of composite system of environment and economic development taking Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone as an example. It used the VENSIM software to do quantitative study and dynamic simulation on the future development situation of the region. By adjusting the composite decision variables of the system,it set up 4 different kinds of development scenarios and predicted the development status of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone in different scenarios,then get the optimal solution of Shandong peninsula blue economic zone on complex system of economy and environment coordinated development to provide decision support for the planning,management and development of Shandong Peninsula blue Economic Zone.