我国P2P网贷市场的羊群行为及其决策理性研究

A Study of Herd Behavior and Its Rationality In China's Online Peer-to-Peer Lending Market

本文以国内某P2P网贷平台的交易数据为基础,从羊群行为视角分析我国P2P网贷市场的投资理性。实证结果发现当期投标金额随羊群动量的增加而显著增加,说明市场中存在显著的羊群行为现象;然而借款请求特征变量对羊群动量与当期投标金额之间的关系没有一致的负向调节作用,羊群动量与贷款绩效之间无相关性,说明羊群行为呈现一定的非理性特征,无法汇聚大众智慧。本文研究结论为监管机构政策制定和市场管理提供了重要证据。

We aim to investigate the rationality of private lending in China＇s online market with data collected from a leading online peerto-peer lending platform in China. We find that the amount of bidding for a borrowing listing at the current period is significantly and positively associated with total bidding amount at the end of the previous period,implying that herding behaviors exist among lenders at the P2 P lending market in China. However,some of the attributes of borrowing listings don＇t negatively moderate the relationship between the bidding amount at the end of the previous period and the bidding amount for the current amount,and there are no significant negative relationship between herding momentum and loan performance,indicating that the herding behavior is not dominated by rationality and could not get access to＂crowd wisdom＂. The findings of the research provide valuable insights for policy makers and lending platforms.