基于TOPSIS-灰色关联分析的区域绿色增长系统评价模型及实证

Evaluation Model and Empirical Study of Regional Green Growth System Based on TOPSIS and Grey Relational Analysis

在总结现有研究与评价方法的基础上,本文结合TOPSIS与灰色关联理论构建区域绿色增长系统的评价模型。该方法引入最优和最劣双基准,运用相对距离来衡量系统现有状态与理想状态的差距。通过对比分析国内外较具代表性的绿色增长评价指标体系,构建中国绿色增长系统的评价指标体系,并利用此方法对中国2001-2012年的绿色增长水平进行实证分析。研究结果表明:中国绿色增长系统呈现缓慢升高的趋势;社会经济与生态环境的协调发展对中国绿色增长系统具有显著的影响;自然资产与政策支持的波动性增长导致整个系统出现了短期下滑。产业结构调整、再生能源开发、自然资源节约、生活环境改造、科学技术进步与污染治理投资等将成为推动我国绿色发展的重要途径。

Based on the existing studies and evaluation methods,this paper establishes the evaluation model of regional green growth system by combining TOPSIS method and grey relational theory. The double benchmarks of the best and worst are introduced in the improved model,and the relative distance is used to measure the gap between system＇s existing and ideal state. Through comparative analysis of domestic and international typical green growth evaluation indicators system,this paper constructs China＇s green growth evaluation indicators system,and an empirical study about Chinese green growth level from 2001 to 2012 is achieved by using this model. The empirical results show that China＇s green growth system is on the rise,but still at a low level. The coordination development of social economy subsystem and ecological environment subsystem has a significant impact on China＇s green growth system. The volatility growth of natural assets subsystem and policy support subsystem leads to the short-term decline of the entire system. Industrial restructuring,renewable energy development,natural resource conservation,living environment transformation,science and technology advancement and pollution control investment will become important ways to promote China＇s green development.