基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长关系研究

Study on Relationship between Water Resource Utilization and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

基于1997~2014年水资源利用和国内生产总值的相关数据,构建了水资源利用与经济增长的VAR模型,通过单位根检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,探索了中国水资源利用和经济增长之间的内在依存关系。研究结果表明:(1)水资源利用和经济增长之间存在单向因果关系且存在长期动态关系,水资源是推动经济增长的重要因素;(2)农业、工业和生活用水对经济增长的贡献度不同。建议改善水资源利用结构和提高水资源利用效率,进而促进经济的可持续发展。

Based on the data of water resource utilization and gross domestic product from 1997 to 2014,the author built an VAR model describing the relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth,and explored the inherent dependence relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth of China through the unit root test,Granger causality test,pulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The results showed that there was a one-way causal relationship and a long-term dynamic relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth,and water resource was an important factor promoting the growth of economy. Agricultural water,industrial water and domestic water had different contribution degrees to the economic growth. It is suggested that improving the structure of water resource utilization,and enhancing the efficiency of water resource utilization to promote the sustainable development of economy.