在国内需求下降时,货币贬值可以提高国外需求(下)

With the Fall of Domestic Demand,Currency Devaluation can Increase Overseas Demand(Ⅱ)

本文就20世纪70年代以来货币的大幅贬值事件,分析有关货币贬值的频度和幅度,及其与通货膨胀的关系。认为就涉及的国家数目、贬值程度或持续时间而言,当前货币贬值事件并不是最严重的。汇率对通胀的传递影响已经下降,贬值对通货膨胀的影响相对时间较短。在国内需求下降的情况下,货币贬值可以提高国外需求,从而促进国内经济增长。

This paper studies the events concerned with the great devaluation of currency since the 1970s. It ana- lyzes the frequency and degree of currency devaluation, and its relationship with inflation. It believes that as far as the number of countries, degree of devaluation and duration is concerned, the present currency devaluation is not serious. The conduction effect of exchange rate on inflation has already been reduced and the duration of its impact on inflation will be relatively short. With the fall of domestic demand, the currency devaluation can increase overseas demand and hence promote domestic economic growth.