新常态下中国经济增长动力的阶段转换研究

Research on the Stage Transformation of China's Economic Growth Momentum under the New Normal

在新经济形势下,中国面临着新兴与传统经济增长动力能否顺利接力的考验,因此,首先利用符号约束的FAVAR模型提取经济增长不可观测动力因子,基于关联性分析"三驾马车"对传统经济增长动力、"双轮驱动"对新兴经济增长动力的表征程度,并通过横向比较判断中国经济是否已完成新兴与传统经济增长动力的阶段转换。研究发现,"双轮驱动"的拉动作用较强但仍弱于传统的"三驾马车",即中国尚处在新兴与传统增长动力的转换阶段,需要宽松经济政策为中国经济托底。

In the new economic situation, China is facing emerging and traditional economic growth momentum smooth relay test. In this case, firstly, the FAVAR model of sign restriction is used to extract the non - observable dynamic fac- tors of economic growth. Second, based on correlation analysis of trioka in the representation of the power of traditional economic growth and ＂two - wheel driven＂ in the representation of the power of emerging economic growth, through the horizontal comparison, this paper determines whether the Chinese economy has completed the stage transformation of the traditional and emerging economic growth momentum. The study found that ＂2 -wheel -driven ＂ has strong pulling effect but is still weaker than the traditional ＂3 - carriage - driven＂, that is, China is still in the emerging and tradition- al growth momentum of the conversion phase, and it needs loose economic policy to underpin Chinese economy.