陕西安康移民搬迁农户生计选择与分工分业的现状与影响因素分析——兼论陕南避灾移民搬迁农户的就地就近城镇化

On Relocated Rural Household Livelihood Choices and Diversification after the Risk Avoidance—Relocation Project in Southern Shaanxi Province,China

在理论研究、国内外相关研究综述的基础上,利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所课题组2015年11月在陕南安康的600多份农村入户调查资料,研究陕南移民搬迁工程实施五年之后当地移民搬迁户的生计选择与分工分业情况。在所调查的459个安康搬迁户样本中,纯农户占13.7%,多样化生计农户占39.9%,非农户占46.4%,调查地搬迁户出现了比较明显的非农化倾向,显示了分工分业的特征和趋势;分别采用多项式Logistic回归模型和序次Logistic回归模型,从搬迁安置方式、搬迁时间、地方政府的帮扶措施等方面实证分析了搬迁农户生计选择与收入变化的影响因素。结果显示,搬迁时间、农村土地流转政策在促进安康移民搬迁户的生计转型、从事非农活动等方面发挥了显著的正向作用,而搬迁的安置方式、搬迁类型、开发式扶贫帮扶措施等政策因素的作用不显著;提出了强化产业支撑、促进搬迁农户就地就近城镇化等建议。

The relocation and resettlement is one of the key five projects of national poverty reduction in China. With the survey data in Ankang City, Shaanxi conducted by the research group of Institute of Population and Development Studies,Xian Jiaotong University in Nov 2015, the paper studies the livelihood choices and diversification of the rural households after they participated the Risk Avoidance Relocation Project in Southern Shaanxi. There are 13.7% ,39.9% and 46.4% farming, diversification and nonfarming livelihood in total sample, so there is an evident feature of nonfarming and diversification in the relocated household livelihood. The paper analyzes the factors influencing the relocated house- holds livelihood choices and income changes with Muhinominal Logistic Model and Ordered Logistic Model. The results show that relocation years, rural land transfer policies have significant positive impacts in the models, and relocation types, resettlement methods, anti -poverty programs are not significant in the models. Finally some suggestions are proposed for the Relocation Project such as improving the support policies for the relocated families, realizing the near and in - site urbanization, etc.