我国交通运输部门重塑能源的潜力路径和实施效果

Analysis on the Potential and Pathways for Reinventing Fire of China's Transportation Sector

本文回顾了我国交通运输全口径能耗历史变化情况,并采用情景分析和LEAP模型分析方法,对未来我国交通运输部门重塑能源的潜力路径和实施效果进行展望分析。研究发现,在参考情景下交通运输能耗会保持较快增长,对能源安全、区域环境、应对气候变化等带来严峻挑战。在充分考虑经济社会和交通运输发展最新趋势的基础上,在重塑情景下,通过合理引导交通服务需求、优化调整交通运输结构、加快清洁燃料替代以及显著提升交通设备能效水平,可以实现交通发展与能源、油品和碳排放的"三个脱钩",并持续提高综合交通能源效率,带来显著的经济、社会、环境效益。

The scenario analysis on China＇s energy consumption of transportation sector is carried out based on the full range review of the historical developing trend of transportation sector＇s energy consumption. Under the Reference Scenario, the energy consumption would grow quite rapidly, which will impose great challenge on energy security, local environment protection and addressing climate change. The Reinventing Fire Scenario is proposed by considering the social and economic development, as well as the new trend in the transportation sector, which visioning the pathways, reduction potential and effects of reinventing fire in the transportation sector. Under the RF Scenario, the development of transportation with energy consumption, oil consumption and carbon emission can be decoupled by controlling the tumover growth, bettering the transportation structure, accelerating the clean fuel substitution and advancing the efficiency level, and also brings about positive effects of energy efficiency improvement continuously, as well as economic, social and environmental benefits.