充填采煤沿空留巷顶板下沉量预测分析

Forecast analysis of roof subsidence in gob-side entry for backfill mining

为获得充填采煤沿空留巷顶板下沉量相对比较准确的预测公式,以某矿1316充填采煤工作面沿空留巷为工程背景,基于多元回归分析法,在分析充填采煤沿空留巷覆岩移动特征的基础上,以充实率、采高、巷道跨度、巷旁支护体强度、巷旁支护体宽度、硬岩厚度比系数、采深和工作面长度8个主要影响因素,结合正交实验设计、FLAC^(3D)数值模拟及SPSS软件对沿空巷道顶板下沉量进行了多元非线性回归分析,得到沿空留巷顶板下沉量的非线性预测公式。通过1316工作面实测参数对预测公式进行验证,结果表明多元回归分析生成的预测模型具有较高精确度。

For a relatively accurate prediction formula for roof subsidence in gob-side entry for backfill mining, With solid backfill workface gob-side entry 1316 as the engineering background, based on mul- tivariate regression analysis and the analysis of strata movement characteristic of the gob-side entry for backfill mining, with eight main influence factors of filling ratio, mining height, span roadway, en- try-side support strength, entry-side support width, hard rock thickness ratio, mining depth, and length of working face, the roof subsidence in gob-side entry was analyzed through multivariate nonlinear re- gression analysis with orthogonal experimental design, FLAC3D numerical simulation, and SPSS and a nonlinear formula for predicting roof subsidence in gob-side entry is obtained. The predict formula was verified through field measurement in workface 1316, and the results have shown that the model pro- duced from multivariate regression analysis has a high accuracy.