中国超大城市新生代农民工婚姻状况及其影响因素分析——基于2015年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据

On Marital Status and Influencing Factors of the New Generation Migrant Workers in Chinese Megacities——Based on the Survey Data of the Dynamic Monitoring about the Floating Population in the Whole Country in 2015

在我国城镇化发展进程中,农民工婚姻状况对维持社会稳定与和谐发展具有重要的意义。根据2015年国家卫生和计划生育委员会所做的《全国流动人口动态监测调查》数据,以北京、上海、广州、深圳新生代农民工为样本,通过非参数统计方法和Heckman二阶段模型进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)四个城市生活和工作压力造成了农民工初婚年龄相对其他城市较大;(2)受教育程度、收入、支出等因素与初婚年龄均呈正相关性,同时女性农民工初婚年龄略早于男性;(3)四个城市对于农民工初婚年龄影响因素略微存在差异,反映出地理位置差异对农民工自身生活存在一定影响。提高农民工婚姻质量,需要有关部门推出相应政策加强引导,同时也需要社会的关心与努力。

In the process of urbanization in China,the marital status of migrant workers is of great significance to maintain social stability and harmonious development. In this paper,we use the data of ＂The National Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey＂in 2015,with the new generation migrant workers of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the samples,according to the non-parametric statistical methods and Heckman two stage models for empirical analysis. The study found that：（1） The life and work pressure in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen caused by the first marriage age is larger than the migrant workers of other cities;（2）The level of education,income,and expenditure showed a positive correlation to the first marriage age,and the first marriage age of female migrant workers is younger than male＇s;（3） The first marriage age of migrant workers are different in the four cities,reflecting the difference of geography has certain effects on the lives of migrant workers. Finally,we sum up that the relevant departments need to introduce the corresponding policies to strengthen the guidance,but also need the community ＇s common concern and efforts,in order to improve the quality of the migrant workers＇ marriage.