气候变化对新安江水库调度影响与适应性对策

Impacts of climate change on operation of Xin'an River reservoir and adaption strategies

本文评估气候变化对径流和水库调度的影响,并基于未来气候变化情景下入库径流绘制适应性调度图。针对新安江水库控制区域,利用bcc-csm1.1气候模式输出驱动新安江月水文模型,生成2016—2045年RCP4.5情景下区域逐月径流过程,定量评估RCP4.5情景对径流和水库调度的影响,并基于RCP4.5情景下入库径流绘制适应性调度图。结果表明:与1971—2000年相比,2016—2045年RCP4.5情景下新安江水库控制区域年均径流减小4.96%,且径流年内和年际差异减小;水库多年平均发电量减小2.98%,且发电量年内分配改变;与历史调度规则相比,适应性调度规则可使RCP4.5情景下水库多年平均发电量增加0.54%,发电不确定性减小,单次平均弃水量减小19.62%,故适应性调度规则能够更好地适应RCP4.5情景,充分发挥水库效益。

This paper assesses the impacts of climate change on runoff and reservoir operation and derives adaptive reservoir operation rule curves for future climate change scenarios. The Xin＇an River hydrologic model was applied in a case study of the Xin＇an River reservoir to generate its monthly runoff from 2016 to 2045 in the climate condition based on the outputs of the BCC-CSM 1.1 model under the scenario RCP 4.5. Then we were able to use the runoff data to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff and reservoir operation and derive adaptive operation rule curves for this reservoir. The results show that relative to the reference period of 1971-2000, annual mean runoff will decrease by 5.0% and inter-annual and intra-annual runoff variations will also decrease. And power generation will be reduced by 3.0% in its annual mean and its intra-annual distribution will be changed. Compared with the past years＇ operation curves, this new adaptive rule can increase annual mean power generation by 0.5% and save mean reservoir spill by 19.6%. Thus the adaptive operation rule curves can better adapt to future climate change scenarios and fulfill the potential of reservoir operation.