人民币加入SDR对中国外贸的影响

Impact of RMB Joining SDR on Foreign Trade of China

利用2012年1月~2016年3月中国外贸总额和人民币国际化水平的月度数据,建立计量经济模型并进行Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解分析,研究人民币加入SDR与中国外贸之间的关系。发现人民币加入SDR与中国外贸发展之间存在长期均衡关系和双向格兰杰因果关系,并且前者是影响后者的第二大外部因素,即在中国经济步入新常态、外贸增长失速的大背景下,人民币加入SDR将会在一定程度上促进中国外贸的发展。

By using the monthly data of foreign trade gross of China and liMB internationalization level within 2012.1- 2016.3, this article establishes econometric model and takes Johansen co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition analysis, and studies the relationship of RMB joining SDR with foreign trade of China. The result shows that there exists a long run balance relationship and bi-directional Granger causality test between RMB joining SDR and foreign trade of China, the former is the second largest external factor for the latter, namely that under the larger background of China＇s economy stepping into the new normal and the foreign trade stall of growth, RMB joining SDR will improve the development of China＇s foreign trade to some extent.