新常态下中国经济增长的长期趋势与短期机制

The Long-run Growth and Short-run Mechanism of Chinese Economy in the New Normal Situation

新常态下的中国经济增长需要重新审视长期与短期之间的关系,长期增长是由供给因素决定的,短期增长是由需求因素决定的。尽管进入新常态经济后开始由高速增长转向中高速增长,但是新常态并不意味着低增长,我国经济未来还有很大的增长空间。目前中国经济增长处在短期波动中,短期增长背离了长期趋势,造成了长期趋势与短期经济波动的不一致。依据长期趋势与短期经济波动不一致的原因分析,新常态下中国经济增长需要把长期与短期相结合,把供给侧结构与需求管理相结合,寻求经济长期持续稳定增长的机制与路径。

In the new normal situation,Chinese economy needs to re-examine the relationship between long-run and short-run growths.Long-run growth is determined by supply factors and short–run growth is determined by demand factors.The new normal economic situation started from high growth to middle growth,but it doesn’t mean low growth coming.Chinese economy still has a lot of room for growth.Until now,Chinese economy growing down is a natural trend.Chinese economy growth in the short-run fluctuations has deviated from the long-run trend and it is inconsistent with the long-run trend.Based on such reasons,in the new normal situation we should combine the long-run growth and short-run growth,and combine the supply and demand,so as to seek a steady long-run growth mechanism.