兰州市轨道交通对沿线住房价格的影响预测研究

Prediction of house price change along the rail transit in Lanzhou City

基于互换理论,在对轨道交通影响范围测算模型改进的情况下,结合投资收益原理和广义交通成本理论,以正在建设中的兰州市轨道交通1号线一期工程为例,探讨了轨道交通对沿线住房价格的地理范围和增值的影响。研究表明:(1)兰州市轨道交通1号线一期工程对沿线站点住房价格影响的地理范围约在0.20~3.40km之间,且距离市中心越近影响范围越小,离市中心越远影响范围越大。(2)其对沿线住房价格的增值预测范围在0~1551.29元/m^2之间,且因轨道交通开通而产生的增值高低规律是距离市中心越近增值越低,距离市中心越远增值越高。(3)增值预测值ΔP_(max)只反映了沿线住房因轨道交通线开通后,交通条件及附带设施改善而产生升值,在实际调查中沿线住房在轨道交通施工时就因其利好消息而提前增值。

We discussed the influences of the rail transit construction on the geographical scope of the house price change and value - added based on the theory of exchange, under the conditions of improvement of model for calculation of rail transit development beneficial influence scope, combined with the principle of return on investment and the theory of the generalized transport cost, the first phase of the Lanzhou City rail transit line 1, which is under building, was taken as an example. Research shows that： （1） The first phase of Lanzhou City rail transit line 1 project sitting will influence the house price along the rail way, and the geographical ranges will be about 0.20 - 3.40km ; the closer to downtown, the smaller the scope is , the farther away from the central city, the bigger the scope is. （2）The predicted range of housing prices along rail way is between 0 - 1551.29 Yuan/ m2 ; the closer to the downtown, the lower the value is, the farther away from the central city, the higher the value is. （3）Appreciation forecast △Pmax just shows the house value increase after rail traffic opening and improving of traffic conditions and the supplementary facilities; in the actual survey, before transit project starting, the house price along rail way has increased because of the good news.