近十年气温和降水对荒漠植物梭梭、刺蓬物候期的影响

Influence of temperature and precipitation on phenology of desert plant Haloxylon ammodendron and Cornulaca alaschanica in recent ten years

基于甘肃省武威市农试站对梭梭和刺蓬的观测资料,运用线性倾向估计法、SPSS统计软件进行逐步回归和方差分析,建立了关键物候期的气候预测模型。结果表明:(1)荒漠区近十年气温略下降、降水增加,梭梭物候期较稳定,各物候期最早最晚出现日期相差达14~26天。刺蓬的物候期变化较大,各物候期最早最晚出现日期相差达40~142天,刺蓬物候期对气候变化更敏感。(2)梭梭返青期、展叶期、新枝形成期、开花期和黄枯期年际变化倾向率为1.1~5.3d/10a,近十年物候期略有推迟;刺蓬返青期、花序形成期、开花期和黄枯期年际变化倾向率为10.8~17.3d/10a,近十年物候期推迟,变率较大。(3)梭梭春季萌动期缩短,营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期延长。刺蓬营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期和全生育期却延长。分析≥0℃积温、累计降水对荒漠植物的影响,梭梭是喜温耐旱植物;而刺蓬受降水影响大。(4)气温与梭梭物候期多为显著负相关,春季气温越高,梭梭春季物候期提前;秋季气温越高,秋季物候期推迟。3~6月降水与梭梭物候期多为显著正相关,降水量越多,梭梭物候越迟。而气温与刺蓬物候呈显著正相关,温度越高,物候期越迟;水分条件适宜刺蓬物候期才会出现,高温干旱不利于刺蓬生长。

Based on the phenology observation data of Haloxylon ammodendron and Cornulaca alaschanica from Wuwei meteorological bureau of Gansu Province, by using the methods of linear trend estimation, stepwise re-gression and variance analysis, the key phenology＇climatic forecast models were set up. The results showed ： （ I ） The temperature dropped slightly and precipitation increased in desert area over the past decade. The phenology of Haloxylon ammodendron was stable, the phenology latest appeared day differed from earliest 14 to 26d. The phenology of Cornulaca alaschanica changed greatly, the phenology latest appeared day differed from earliest 40 to 142d, and the phenology of Cornulaca alaschanica was more sensitive to climate change. （2） Haloxylon am-modendron＇s turning green period, leaf expansion period, shoots formation period, flowering period and withering period of interannual variation tendency rate was 1.1 - 5.3d/10a, the phenology slightly delayed in recent 10 years. Cornulaca alaschanica turning green period, inflorescence formation period, flowering period and wither-ing period of interannual variation tendency rate was 10.8- 17.3d/10a, the phenology delayed in recent ten years, and the variable rate was larger. （3） The spring bud period of Haloxylon ammodendron, the vegetative growth period, the reproductive growth period of Cornulaca alaschanica period and the whole growth period were all prolonged. The vegetative was shortened, and the reproductive growth period and the whole growth period were prolonged. Accoeding to the influence of ≥0℃ accumulated temperature and total precipitation on the desert plants,Haloxylon ammodendron is a thermophilic drought tolerant plant, and Cornulaca alaschanica is largely affected by precipitation. （4） The temperature and phenology of Haloxylon persicum was significant nega- tive correlation, the temperature was higher in spring, the spring phenology of Haloxylon ammodendron was ad-vanced. The autumn temperature was higher, the autumn phenology was postponed. Precipitation in March to June and and phenology of Haloxylon ammodendron was significantly positive correlation, the more rainfall was, the more the phenology of Haloxylon ammodendron was postponed. The temperature and the phenology of Cornu-laca alaschanica was significantly positive correlation, the temperature was higher, the phenology was later. When the water condition was suitable for the growth, the phenology of Cornulaca alaschanica would appear. The high temperature and drought were not suitable for the growth of Cornulaca alaschanica.